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What is a Random Forest?

Random Forest is a supervised machine learning algorithm that is composed of individual decision trees. This type of model is called an ensemble model because an “ensemble” of independent models is used to compute a result.

What is a Decision Tree?

The basis for the Random Forest is formed by many individual decision trees, the so-called Decision Trees. A tree consists of different decision levels and branches, which are used to classify data.

The Decision Tree algorithm tries to divide the training data into different classes so that the objects within a class are as similar as possible and the objects of different classes are as different as possible. This results in multiple decision levels and response paths, as in the following example:

Das Bild zeigt einen beispielhaften Decision Tree.
Example Decision Tree

This tree helps to decide whether to do sports outside or not, depending on the weather variables “weather”, “humidity” and “wind force”. The decision tree visualizes the classification of the answers into “Yes” and “No” and clarifies very simply when you can do sports outside and when not. You can find the detailed explanation in our own post on Decision Trees.

Unfortunately, decision trees can tend to overfit very quickly. This means that the algorithm becomes too accustomed to the training data and learns it by heart. As a result, it performs very poorly on new, unseen data.

In machine learning, the goal is actually always to train an algorithm that learns certain capabilities from a training data set and can then apply them to new data. For this reason, decision trees are rarely used nowadays, and instead very similar random forests are resorted to. This is made possible by the so-called Ensemble Method, which will be explained in more detail in the next section.

What is the Random Forest Algorithm?

The Random Forest consists of a large number of these decision trees, which work together as a so-called ensemble. Each individual decision tree makes a prediction, such as a classification result, and the forest uses the result supported by most of the decision trees as the prediction of the entire ensemble. Why are multiple decision trees so much better than a single one?

The secret behind the Random Forest is the so-called principle of the wisdom of crowds. The basic idea is that the decision of many is always better than the decision of a single individual or a single decision tree. This concept was first recognized in the estimation of a continuous set.

In 1906, an ox was shown to a total of 800 people at a fair. They were asked to estimate how heavy this ox was before it was actually weighed. It turned out that the median of the 800 estimates was only about 1% away from the actual weight of the ox. No single estimate had come that close to being correct. So the crowd as a whole had estimated better than any other single person.

This can be applied in exactly the same way to the Random Forest. A large number of decision trees and their aggregated prediction will always outperform a single decision tree.

Der Random Forest ist aus vielen einzelnen Decision Trees aufgebaut.
Structure of a Random Forest

However, this is only true if the trees are not correlated with each other and thus the errors of a single tree are compensated by other Decision Trees. Let us return to our example with the ox weight at the fair.

The median of the estimates of all 800 people only has the chance to be better than each individual person, if the participants do not agree with each other, i.e. are uncorrelated. However, if the participants discuss together before the estimation and thus influence each other, the wisdom of the many no longer occurs.

What is Bagging?

In order for the random forest to produce good results, we must therefore ensure that the individual decision trees are not correlated with each other. We use what is called bagging. It is a method within Ensemble Algorithms that ensures that different models are trained on different subsets of the dataset.

Decision trees are very sensitive to their training data. A small change in the data can already lead to a significantly different tree structure. We take advantage of this property when bagging. Each tree within the forest is therefore trained on a sample of the training data set, which prevents the trees from being correlated with each other.

Each tree is still trained on a training dataset with the length of the original dataset, even though a sample was taken. This is done by replacing the missing values. Suppose our original data set is the list [1,2,3,4,5,6] with a length of six. A possible sample from this is [1,2,4,6], which we extend by the 2 and 6 so that we again get a list of length six: [1,2,2,4,6,6]. Bagging is the process of taking a sample of the data set and “augmenting” it with elements from the sample back to the original size.

Application Areas of the Random Forest algorithm

Random Forest models are used for classification tasks and regression analyses, similar to decision trees. These find application in many fields, such as medicine, e-commerce, and finance. Real random forest examples can be found in these areas:

  • Predict stock prices
  • Assess creditworthiness of a bank customer
  • Diagnose illness based on medical records
  • Predict consumer preferences based on purchase history

What are the Advantages of Random Forests?

There are some good reasons why you should use random forests in classification tasks. Here are the most common ones:

  • Better performance: As we have explained several times at this point, the performance of an ensemble algorithm is on average better than that of a single model.
  • Lower risk of overfitting: Decision trees have a strong tendency to memorize the training dataset, i.e., to get into overfitting. The median of uncorrelated decision trees, on the other hand, is not as susceptible and therefore provides better results for new data.
  • Reproducible decisions: While finding results in a random forest is more confusing than with a single decision tree, it is still comprehensible at its core. Comparable algorithms, such as neural networks, offer no way to understand how the result was reached.
  • Lower computing power: A random forest can be trained relatively quickly on today’s computers since the hardware requirements are not as high as for other machine learning models.

When should you not use Random Forests?

Although random forests are an alternative to consider in many use cases, there are also situations where they are not suitable.

Random forests should be used mainly for classification tasks where all classes with a few examples are present in the training data set. However, they are unsuitable for predicting new classes or values, as we know them from linear regressions or neural networks, for example.

Although training random forests is relatively fast, a single classification takes a relatively long time. So if you have a use case where real-time predictions need to be made, other algorithms may be more suitable.

If the training dataset is very unevenly populated, meaning that some classes have very few records. The samples in the bagging process suffer from this, which in turn has a negative impact on the model performance.

This is what you should take with you

  • The Random Forest is a supervised machine learning algorithm, which is composed of individual decision trees.
  • It is based on the principle of the wisdom of crowds, which states that a joint decision of many uncorrelated components is better than the decision of a single component.
  • Bagging is used to ensure that the decision trees are not correlated to each other.
  • The Random Forest is used in medicine as well as in the financial and banking sectors.

Other Articles on the Topic of Random Forests

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